Summary of project activities

Project developer: Hungarian Meteorological Service
Find more information on the project's home page.

The third element of component 1 (sub-component C13) aims to improve the knowledge underpinning the national adaptation information system. This activity covers the improvement of regional climate modelling using recently established IPCC global emission trajectories and outputs from new global circulation models. The ongoing project will provide improved projected climate data for Hungary at the required resolution of 10km x 10km. Past and future climate data will provide information about changes in weather parameters for the periods 2020–2050 and 2070–2100.

The detailed and quantitative information about the climate change is crucial in order to have targeted and sustainable adaptation strategies.The National Adaptation Geographical Information System (NAGIS), as well as this project may serve a proper scientific basis of these strategies.

In this project, climate simulations will be performed with a resolution of 10 km through the latest versions of two regional climate models: ALADIN-Climate adapted at the Hungarian Meteorological Service and RegCM used at Eötvös Loránd University, Department of Meteorology. Firstly, sensitivity studies are performed with the models to determine the optimal settings for the subsequent climate simulations. Secondly, longer historical runs are conducted in order to test the behaviour of the models for a longer period of relatively solid observations. Model results for Hungary, mainly focusing on variables of temperature and precipitation, are intercompared with a good quality, homogenized data set gained under the CARPATCLIM project.

Two different global climate models prescribe large-scale features for the two different regional climate models, furthermore for counting the unpredictable impacts of human activity, instead of former SRES scenarios two newly presented representative RCP scenarios are taken, a pessimistic RCP8.5 and an optimistic RCP4 .5 one. During the planned project, two model runs will be performed using the available two models and two scenarios, so that scenario uncertainty resulting from human activity and model uncertainty can simultaneously be quantified. The scenario uncertainty is relevant mainly in temperature change signal, while the latter one results in differences of precipitation projections. Future changes will be quantified for 2021–2050 and 2071–2100.

In Hungary, (end-)users, decision-makers and general public are not yet open to the use of quantitative information containing uncertainty. The project is breaking with this approach: NAGIS users must use all the implemented climate model simulation results in order to obtain climate uncertainties in their impact studies. Workshops, meetings and trainings will further help them in the application of model results and the potential of uncertainty information. The general public could get information through the project website and e-newsletters.