New Climate Change Scenarios – Consultation Workshop
Detailed summary and downloadable presentations (in Hungarian)
The event was opened by Gabriella Szépszó, the project’s coordinator. She demonstrated how information derived from climate models can be applied in impact studies. György Varga, expert of the National Water Management Directorate, used the delta technique to estimate the water circulation of Lake Balaton as a result of climate change. Nándor Fodor, from the Agriculture Science Research Centre of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences talked about his research results into climate change impacts on plant cultivation, using the 4M agrometeorological model.
After these presentations there was a discussion session, which proceeded along pre-determined questions about testing and calibrating the impact assessment procedures in the various professional disciplines. Participants also reviewed how raw model result data can be corrected and how these results can be interpreted towards the end-users and decision-makers.
For one part of the users even nowadays it is not self-explanatory to consider the uncertainty of climate change information in the impact studies. As the uncertainty of projections can be quantified by using more model simulations, in practice this means that the impact studies have to be conducted a number of times, using raw data from different model results.
A lot of discussions centred around the ever-green topic: how can scientific results based on probability be presented to decision-makers, who on the contrary prefer yes-no type answers. Participants have agreed that to bridge this gap those experts play an important role who prepare this information for decision-makers, i.e. review scientific results with an expert eye, but then synthesize these along the criteria of decision-makers.