New Climate Change Scenarios – Closing Event

Detailed summary and downloadable presentations (In Hungarian)
Video recordings of presentations (in Hungarian)

The closing event of the project ”C13-10 New climate scenarios based on the change in radiative forcing of the Carpathian Basin (RCMTéR)” took place in the headquarters of the Hungarian Meteorological Service on 29 February, 2016. The aim of the meeting was to inform participating decision makers, climate change research professionals and media about the conducted research and the main results of the project.

The event was opened jointly by Kornélia Radics (president of the Hungarian Meteorological Service), Arild Moberg Sande (representative of Norway in Hungary) and Zsuzsanna Iványi (Central and Eastern European Regional Environmental Center).

Kornélia Radics has highlighted that the Meteorological Service has a long history of fruitful cooperation with partner institutions in Norway, and this cooperation was further strengthened by the EEA Grants programme.

Arild Moberg Sande has presented the objectives of the EEA Grants programme and has drawn the attention to the importance of research relating to the linkages between the energy industry, environmental protection, and climate change.

Besides presenting NAGiS Zsuzsanna Iványi has covered the other main pillar of the programme: climate change related national capacity building and awareness raising as well as the improvement of local climate change adaptation through the implementation of demonstration projects.

After the opening speeches Emese Homolya (Geological and Geophysical Institute of Hungary – National Adaptation Center) gave a  presentation about the use of climate model data contained in the NAGiS.

In order to prepare adaptation measures it is crucial to quantify the uncertainty of expected future changes and then take this into consideration in the impact studies. Currently most of the Hungarian impact assessments consider the results of one single climate model, and this approach does not allow to consider this aspect. Besides other reasons, this is why the ‘Climate change scenarios’ project has offered a targeted user training programme as well as the development of climate change projections for NAGiS. These measures were introduced to the audience in detail by Gabriella Szépszó, the project’s manager.

The implementation of modelling experiments was done in more steps. First, a sensibility study was made to determine the optimal parameters of the integration range and the right physical parameters. Then, the new version of the model and the new setup values were cross-tested against a longer past time period. These validation studies were summarised by Ildikó Pieczka from the Eötvös Loránd University, Department of Meteorology.

The preliminary results of projections made with these models were presented by Judit Sábitz from the Climate Modelling Group of the Hungarian Meteorological Service.

During the Q&A session which followed the presentations the question was raised about the suitability of publishing two different models’ results side by side, considering that these future simulations were created based on two different scenarios. The project leader has clarified this by answering that the IPCC displays uncertainty in the same manner, i.e. it provides the results of projections made with differing emission scenarios and climate models together. However, the results of the ‘Climate change scenarios’ project have shown an important development direction for NAGiS: in order to map the most probable changes and to properly interpret the results it is not enough to consider the results of only two models in follow-up research.